Opinion: Republicans start jumping ship

Sen. Arlen Specter's recent party switch has nothing to do with principle and everything to do with Republicans becoming increasingly unelectable. Over the last 10 years, Democratic registration in Pennsylvania has increased by 860,552 while Republican registration increased by a paltry 96,895. Sen. Specter (D-Pa.) was also faced with an increasingly right-wing primary electorate that was likely to vote him out and put conservative Pat Toomey in. Seeing the changing demographics, Sen. Specter even cited his own internal polling while talking about the switch.

The Wall Street Journal, writing about the switch, tells how advertising legend Jerry Della Femina was trying to meet Specter when he was a district attorney in Pennsylvania. At the time, Specter had just switched from Democrat to Republican. Femina asked Specter's people what he was for, and they replied, "Arlen Specter is for getting elected." He then asked what Specter is against and they replied, "Arlen Specter is against losing." From flip-flopping on the Employee Free Choice Act to voting against conservative Judge Bork for the Supreme Court, Arlen Specter has always done what is best for him. The fact that this means going to the Democratic Party should worry all Republicans.

The massive advantage in Democratic registration in Pennsylvania mirrors a national trend that accelerated during the Barack Obama/Hillary Clinton Primary. In the last five years, Republican registration in Pennsylvania has actually declined by 60,000, with more than 100,000 leaving the party in the metropolitan Philadelphia area. That was the stronghold of Arlen Specter's support, as he has never done well in the western part of the state. In fact, though Republican registration is increasing in the Pittsburgh area, the voters are more culturally conservative and similar in outlook to southeastern Ohio or West Virginia voters. Pat Toomey won all of the counties around Pittsburgh, some by more than 60 percent, in the 2004 primary.

According to a Research 2000 poll, only 23 percent of the country approve of the Republican Party, while 52 percent approve of the Democrats. Though part of this can be explained by the media's adoring coverage of President Barack Obama, a larger shift to the left can be seen by looking at shifts in specific demographics. From younger voters to minorities and suburbanites, Republicans are hurting.

Republicans can comfort themselves with the fact that politics is cyclical, and the last time the Democrats had a filibuster-proof majority (1976), it coincided with a collapse of Jimmy Carter's presidency and a 25-year decline of liberalism. It is no guarantee and shouldn't be taken as such, however. Though Obama could always fail spectacularly, any economic recovery leaves the Republicans in dire straits.

That is because 2010's landscape is highly unfavorable for the Republicans. They will be defending open seats in New Hampshire, Missouri, Ohio, Texas and Florida, and also have to contend with the unpopular Jim Bunning of Kentucky. Meanwhile, the Democrats' only open seat is in Delaware, a solid blue state, with only Chris Dodd of blue Connecticut being vulnerable. Republicans will eventually regain the majority, but after 2010 they could find themselves struggling to hold a third of the seats in the Senate.

This decline feeds on itself, encouraging members to retire rather than stay in a permanent minority. Other moderate Republicans such as Sen. Olympia J. Snowe of Maine may switch rather than remain irrelevant. This is the real danger that Sen. Specter's decision illustrates. Republicans are increasingly dependant on a massive Democratic disaster to survive as demographics go against them.