There has been a lot of hype about the movie “The Social Network” in media outlets across the country (including this one). The film has scored a 97 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, earning the rare title of “certified fresh pick,” and a 4.5 out of 5 on IMDB.
Naturally, this sort of talk leads to early Academy Awards predictions. As someone who hasn’t seen the movie yet, I can’t say whether the hype is overblown. But I can say, based on Oscar history, that “The Social Network” won’t win Best Picture.
The first and most pertinent reason is the PG-13 rating attached to the film. A film’s rating doesn’t imply that it is undeserving; “Forrest Gump” and “The Return of the King” are examples of worthy winners from recent history. But there is an inherent bias against the rating among the voters for the award.
In the last 20 years, there have only been five Best Picture Winners that have not been R-rated. In the last 10 years, only two. It seems to suggest that the Academy considers PG-13 fare to be below the maturity level expected in a Best Picture-winning film.
“The Return of the King” couldn’t do much to sell itself as an R-rated movie. Tolkien simply wasn’t very obscene or raunchy in his writing.
“The Social Network” had every chance to inject mature content matter into the film. The trailers drip with sex appeal, and I’d have to imagine that if I was battling for billions of dollars with former friends, I would curse at a high level. The filmmakers avoided both these approaches, at the cost of a PG-13 rating.
The film is also lacking in any significant “Oscar bait.” It’d be nice if Oscars just went to the most deserving nominees. They don’t. Director David Fincher is widely respected for his work, including “Fight Club” and “Se7en.” But his only nomination came from 2008’s “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” probably because it featured a cast with Oscar history, including Brad Pitt, Cate Blanchett and Tilda Swinton, who had all been nominated before.
The Coen brothers are an example of a film entity that can’t wake up in the morning without being nominated for something (Most recently “A Serious Man” and “No Country for Old Men”). Their December release, “True Grit” is already gathering Oscar talk because they’re directing it. The Coen brothers are a talented duo, there’s no doubt about it, but talented enough to garner nominations with only a trailer? Their names, along with the previously nominated stars (Jeff Bridges, Matt Damon and Josh Brolin) and the R rating will make “True Grit” much more favorable than “The Social Network,” come awards season.
Another element working against Fincher’s film: Recent history is shaky ground. Even movies based on distant history are far from a sure thing. “A Beautiful Mind” is the closest thing to a “historical” film to win Best Picture in the last 10 years. Films based in this decade, such as “W” and “World Trade Center,” rarely fare well with critics, much less with the Academy. And “The Hurt Locker” doesn’t count as historical because it wasn’t based on actual events; it just focused on the war in Iraq as a backdrop.
Lastly, the recent jump from five to 10 nominees for Best Film by the Academy hurts every film’s chance at getting the award. “The Social Network” will certainly be nominated. But now, it must contend with nine competitors instead of four, which scatters votes. The new system furthers the distance between favorites and possible upset picks. For the reasons listed above, “The Social Network” won’t be the favorite.
I plan to see the movie soon because reviews have been good. I might even decide the movie is truly the best picture of the year. But my influence only flies so high. The Academy makes the ultimate choice. And if history is any indication, “The Social Network” won’t be that choice.
