Ohio State researchers have helped create a statistical model, in hopes of better understanding El Niño and its causes.
The HiDyn statistical model was developed to forecast sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean seven months into the future.
“Unusually warm SSTs in the eastern part of the tropical Pacific are often called El Niño event, and unusually cold SSTs are called La Niña event,” said Noel Cressie, professor of statistics and director of the spatial statistics and environmental sciences program.
Cressie and his two colleagues Mark Berliner, professor of statistics at Ohio State, and Christopher Wikle, associate professor of statistics at the University of Missouri, formed HiDyn.
“The model uses a result in probability theory called Bayes’ Theorem to produce a set of forecast and to attach probabilities to collections of forecast,” Cressie said.
She said they give the expected seven-month forecast based on these probabilities, together with maps of ranges of possible forecast.
“What is new is that the model produces valid probabilities that quantify the uncertainty in modeling SSTs,” Cressie said.
He said that the information is not for day-to-day weather but for weather in future seasons.
“However, meteorologists can use our SST forecast to make their own long-lead forecasts of temperature and rainfall probabilities for this coming summer,” Cressie said.
Low temperature, snow, ice, rainfall and other changes that take place in the winter are normal Рsome winters because of El Ni̱o and others because of La Ni̱a.
Jeff Rodgers, professor of geography and state climatologist for Ohio, explained that this winter is not the result of either El Niño or La Niña.
“Right now, neither,” Rodgers said. “Impact in Ohio during El Niño would be relatively dry winters with below normal or average precipitation. La Niña would be wetter than normal and often very rainy.
“In December, it looked like La Niña, but by January circulation changed,” Rodgers said.
El Niño or La Niña might not have directly affected the weather in Ohio this winter, but students and faculty still monitor the weather’s progress.
“For classes, it’s important to know, as well as for other things like food, crops and production,” said Carrie Peyton, a senior in international relations. “(The HiDyn) should spark interest; people might not be aware of how much El Niño and La Niña affect weather patterns.”
