Gregg Easterbrook, author of the popular ESPN column “Tuesday Morning Quarterback,” has a saying: “All predictions wrong or your money back.” Political pundits, economists, social scientists and other fortune tellers should take note.
If there is one thing the media loves it is bold predictions of the future from so-called experts. They like it even more if these predictions are as horrifying as possible, never mind their relationship to reality.
Predictions themselves are harmless. It is when they are reported as fact that they become dangerous.
These predictions usually fall into two categories. They are the too-many-variables-to-ever-know-what-is-going-on prediction and the completely-out-of-my-ass-but-can’t-be-disproved prediction.
The first type is the favorite of the social sciences. Economists will often be asked to project future economic growth or other statistics, such as the unemployment rate. The criteria on calculating these statistics are so subjective that the predictions end up all over the map. While these guesses can be helpful in understanding general trends, they are just guesses based heavily on personal opinion.
Just think back to how many economists got the financial crisis and the aftermath correct. There are countless other examples. Social scientists too often just repeat fads or data that is missing key variables. This has lead to arguments that more prisons equal more crime and other politically charged statements. While both sides have valid arguments, they are not facts any more than the economic guesses.
Even more detached from reality are the guesses that don’t even pretend to be based on science (though one could argue that the pseudo-science is more harmful because people fall for the math). These are things such as guesses at the probability of a terrorist attack or declaring that in 10 years global warming will have passed a critical point of no return.
Despite the absolute lack of credibility, these guesses are predictions that are often repeated in the media as if they carry weight. The media doesn’t say that Dick Cheney doesn’t know the chance of an attack or that the statement “carbon output must be cut 50 percent or we all die” is based on no facts whatsoever. Instead, they are passed on to the American public as expert truth.
These predictions are harmful when they are used as the basis for policies or decisions. Now-discredited economic theories about risk were a major factor in the financial crisis. An unreasonable fear of terrorism and environmental disaster has led to expensive and overbearing legislation. Instead of spreading panic about innumerable future disasters, we would be better off accepting that we just don’t know what is going to happen.
