Thirty days into January, Columbus has already seen six homicides. At this rate, the city may accumulate even more murders than last year, when it reached 112 – one of the highest murder rates in the last two decades.
“If we look back in the files over the last couple decades, it’s just been a rollercoaster,” said Sherry Mercurio, spokeswoman for Columbus Division of Police.
The rate peaked in 1991 with 139 homicides, but it’s a hard crime to predict, Mercurio said.
“The best predictor of homicides in any year is the rate of the previous year,” said Paul Bellair, associate professor of sociology. Bellair has completed research on crime within urban neighborhoods and young adults.
“The rate tends to be stable over time because causes of crime are structured,” Bellair said. “It has a lot to do with society and how we live.”
Education levels, poverty rates, drug use and employment levels all are factors in homicide rates, Bellair said.
“I think that’s what has happened in Columbus – the unemployment rate is high and so is the homicide rate,” Bellair said.
The availablity of guns with the new concealed gun law that passed last week may have a short-term increase in the homicide rate, Bellair said.
“It may allow crimes to escalate temporarily but without any real effect in the long-run,” Bellair said.
The new law probably will not affect the homicide rate, said Detective Dana Farbacher of the Columbus Division of Police.
“The criminal background check won’t allow those who are likely to commit crimes to carry a gun and those who are already carry them illegally. So it probably won’t increase,” Farbacher said.
There is some speculation that homicide rates increase during times of war, Mercurio said.
“Homicide rates have no consistent pattern but sometimes seem to be affected by political events,” said Randolph Roth, a historian of long-term violent crime and death.
During the Mexican War and the Revolutionary War, the homicide rate more than doubled, Roth said. But during World War II and the Cold War the rate went down, he said.
“Politically unifying events that create political solidarity seem to decrease the homicide rate,” he said.
In late September 2001, Roth predicted the homicide rate in New York would decrease after the events of Sept. 11.
“People came together, and I saw pride in solidarity in New York,” Roth said. “Then it dropped 40 percent, just like a rock.”
There is no direct evidence of this theory about war, Bellair said.
“We’re at war now and the homicide rate has increased, but the unemployment rate has also been up. I’d put more emphasis on the unemployment rate,” Bellair said.
“It’s just one of those things that goes in streaks, and we went through a spell with a lot of multiple homicides last year,” Sarbacher said.
Near the Ohio State campus, there were two cases of multiple homicides: an arson that claimed five students’ lives and a shooting on East 11th Avenue where three people died.
“Both of these events occurred off-campus and therefore are under the jurisdiction of the Columbus Police Department,” said Vernon Baisden, director of public safety at OSU. “We are in the beginning of enhancing our campus-wide crime prevention and educational outreach initiatives.”
Having extra officers on the streets won’t help, Mercurio said.
“It may help solve the cases but on a preventative measure – no,” she said.
The homicides in 2003 keep the 31 Columbus police detectives busy, Farbacher said.
“Chief Jackson feels there should be more officers hired for our department, and most officers would agree with that,” Farbacher said. “The busier you get, the harder it is to solve cases.”
The department’s solvability rate has remained steady at 66 percent, Mercurio said.
“Based on the economy and budget cuts detectives probably won’t be added,” Farbacher said.
It is important for all students to promote their own safety, Baisden said.
“We are pleased with the university community’s opinion of our public safety services,” he said.
In February 1998, Farbacher worked on a series of home invasion robberies and two homicides near campus that occurred because of unlocked doors, Farbacher said.
“Students should lock their doors, walk with someone else after dark and be aware of their surroundings,” Farbacher said.
